Embracing the Certainty of Uncertainty improves Care

Acknowledging the presence of irreducible uncertainty helps to directly improve patient care, patient communication, basic science and population research, as well as management of healthcare organizations, all of which will enhance our ability to care for patients.

Despite the fact that uncertainty is an undeniable fact of everyday experiences, in particular when providing care to patients, it is ignored and under-evaluated scientifically. Diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty when treating patients frequently results in delayed diagnosis, unnecessary interventions, increased complications, mortality and cost of care. Hence, understandably and appropriately, medical science seeks knowledge, certainty and prediction. Embracing the truth of intrinsic irreducible uncertainty assists with the provision of health care at the bedside, improves patient-physician communication, enhances research in both basic and population science, and improves management of health care organizations and improved patient care.45,46

Relevant Papers:

  1. Seely AJE. Editorial: Prediction is difficult, especially about future unexpected deterioration. Crit Care Med 2016, Sep;44(9):1781-3.
  2. Seely AJE.  Embracing the certainty of uncertainty: implications for health care and research.  Perspect Biol Med. 2013, Winter;56(1):65-77.

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